When the news emerged that
President Buhari has nominated Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as Nigeria’s candidate to
be considered for the position of the director-general of the World Trade
Organization (WTO), I had a mixed feeling. One was a feeling of happiness that,
once again, Mr President has demonstrated that he has no rancour against any
Nigerian, who is deserving to serve the country at the global stage regardless
of his or her party affiliation. The other was a feeling of surprise. My
surprise was based on my expectation that Mr Yonov Fredrick Agah, a Nigerian
and one of the deputy directors-general at the WTO, who has been in that
position since October 2013 when he was first appointed (and reappointed in
October 2017), would be the readily candidate to be nominated. In May 2020, Mr
Agah was among the five candidates
that some pundits have floated to replace Mr Azevedo. But as the news report
shows, Mr Agah’s candidacy was withdrawn by Mr President and was replaced with
Dr Okonjo-Iweala. The reason for that decision is yet unclear. Though, I
genuinely believe that Dr Okonjo-Iweala’s credentials qualify her for that position,
however, her eventual emergence as the director-general of the WTO would appear
to be quite uncertain based on a few factors – such as regional representation argument,
country/economic classification argument, and influence of the United States
(US).
As a background, on May
14, 2020, Mr Roberto Azevedo announced
at a virtual meeting of all the WTO member states that he would resign his
position effective August 31, 2020. This means that by August 31, 2020 his resignation
will have taken effect. He was due to complete his second tenure on August 31, 2020.
While regional
representation argument may seem strong in favour of Dr Okonjo-Iweala as the
next director-general of the WTO, given that African region is yet to produce
the head of the WTO, however, that argument will only remain strong if there
are no other candidates from Africa or other regions – such as North America
and the Middle East – that have not yet produced the head of the WTO. Among the
few names that pundits have recently mentioned
include Africans such as Hamid Mamdouh, from Egypt, Eloi
Laourou, from Benin Republic, Amina Mohamed, from Kenya. If there is
no agreement among African countries to present Dr Okonjo-Iweala as a consensus
candidate for the African region, her chances of emerging the next head of the
WTO are dampened.
Nonetheless, the country/economic
classification argument seems less strong given that the outgoing
director-general is from a developing country - Brazil. The developed countries
may argue for a rotation, since country/economic classification was one of the
key considerations that saw Mr Azevedo emerge as the director-general in the
past year(s). Based on this, there is a natural tendency that the US’s
influence on the WTO under President Trump will become pronounced during the
selection process than in 2013 and 2017, hence that will most likely make the country/economic
classification argument prevail in favour of developed countries. Keep in mind
that since the WTO was formed in 1995, the US has not produced any candidate to
head the WTO. Though it’s unclear yet whether the US will nominate an American,
perhaps Mr Alan Wolff, who is one of the deputy directors-general at the WTO to
be considered to replace Mr Azevedo, however, the likelihood of that nomination
by President Trump cannot be undermined because given what we know about
President Trump, he is full of surprises.
No doubts, the resignation
of Mr Azevedo has revealed two key challenges. On one hand is the challenge of choosing,
yet another leader for the WTO via consensus. Historically, the election of the
director general of WTO is based on consensus among member states and not on
votes. As a result, reaching a consensus among member states on who will lead the
WTO is often contentious. In the past, strong considerations have been given to
regional representation and classification of economies into developed and
developing economies. For example, in 2013, Mr Azevedo’s eventual emergence as
WTO’s director-general was based on regional representation and country/economic
classification arguments. As at the time, South America seemed to be
well-positioned as a region to produce WTO’s director-general, given that two
candidates from that region (Brazil and Mexico) were preferred by many
countries from the European Union and Africa. A report
by The Guardian shows that he was neither the British nor the US’s anointed candidate
albeit a consensus was eventually reached to choose him because he was
perceived by developing countries as their voice at the WTO. Hence, he became
the first South American to occupy that position.
On the other hand is
the challenge for who emerges as director-general to help the WTO to weather
the storm of the global trade crises exacerbated by COVID-19 pandemic, and to reconcile
the trade war between the USA and China. This challenge is widely acknowledged.
For example, Bloomberg’s Bryce Baschuk and Jenny Leonard in their article
in May 2020 noted that Mr Azevedo’s exit came at a very uncertain time when the
global economy is suffering from the worst slump since the economic depression
of 1930 due to COVID-19, as evident in the low forecasts for global trades and
trade policy conflicts across the world. In a similar vein, William Reinsch and
John Hoffner from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in
their article
in May 2020 recognized that a new leadership with a “bold approach to WTO
reform” is needed to inoculate a new breath into the already weakened WTO.
Although, new
information is still unfolding regarding nominations for the next head of the
WTO, however, the window for nomination – until July 8 2020, has presented the
African region the opportunity to unite around one candidate in order to present
a united front and formidable force during the negotiations for a consensus
candidate. As a Nigerian, I can only hope that Dr Okonjo-Iweala will emerge as
the next director-general of the WTO.
©Chuma_47
June 5, 2020
