2015 In Retrospect

December 15, 2015 @dailypostngr

"The year 2015, with the alleged prediction by the United States’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that Nigeria would disintegrate, and global torchlight beamed on the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) preparations for the general elections, inherited a myriad of uncertainties that cut across the economy and polity.

On the economy; the year 2015 started off on a rocky foot with Nigeria’s economic outlook showing signs that the economy was at risk of macroeconomic challenges following dyad volatility in global oil prices and Nigeria’s foreign exchange, hence would struggle to achieve a reasonable growth rate (See PwC and AfDB 2015 reports). The federal government (FG) had beaten its chest that it had got all its ducks in a row with robust economic buffers to sustain the economy in the face of any economic storm, however, the effect of global oil price volatility on the economy, as evident in the rapidly declined (and continued declining of) government exports and revenues, within a short period of time revealed that the FG’s claim of having robust economic buffers to withstand oil price shocks was a mere rhetoric and as such was empty of substance and evasive on distinctly outlined strategies.

On the polity; the uncertainties that heralded the year 2015 manifested in the deteriorated (and continued deterioration of) security situation in Nigeria and in INEC’s preparations for the general elections. The Islamic dissident group, Boko Haram, reared its ugly head with intensified application of guerrilla-warfare-type of attacks in the north. Though it was obvious that the Nigerian military was incapacitated to fight Boko Haram, but to accept that was a bitter pill for the FG to swallow. However, to reveal how weak the Nigerian military was the insurgents spat in the face of the Army with repulsive attacks in Baga (Baga massacre) between January 3 and 7, 2015. While the FG and Nigerian military engaged in their usual denial of casualties and distortion of facts of the incident the survivors whose families had been ruthlessly slain and villages destroyed resorted to self-help in neighbouring country, Republic of Chad, and in islands of Lake Chad. The weakness of the Nigerian military provided the insurgents the fertile ground to fine-tune their modus operandi of attacks. That did not only gain the insurgents credence into the world of terrorism but also earned Boko Haram (arguably) the most dreaded terror group in the world.

No doubt, with the events that played out in the year, 2015 will have a special place in Nigeria’s history book. Sadly, the year that started with message of hope from the then ruling party (PDP), despite the difficult economic challenges, seems to be ending with message of doom from the (now) ruling party (APC), despite the wide-spread change mantra. Recently, the federal government has forewarned Nigerians that the in-coming year 2016 “is going to be tough,” hence government is going to make “tough decision.” It is not clear yet what the decisions are. But whatever the decisions are, it is my view that government should keep in mind that addressing security challenges and tackling ethnic differences in the country remain top priorities. Though the federal government appears to be making progress with the coalition force against the insurgents, however, the same impetus should be applied to addressing ethnic differences across the country. And this can be through policy dialogues."

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